Do you have biases? Perhaps you never thought about it, but consider how you look at someone different than you. Have you ever been “caught up” in the environment in which you were in and reacted in a way the others were reacting? Does college pledging ring a bell?
Behavioral biases can act as a contact lens by which we view the world. Some have blue-tinted contacts which influence how we see the colors or the world.
In my last blog, I explained that we are all wired differently psychologically, with different behavioral biases. These behavioral biases fall into two categories, emotional biases and cognitive biases, and last time, we discussed emotional biases.
Today, I will review Five Cognitive Biases. These biases stem from basic statistical, information-processing, or memory errors; cognitive biases may be considered the result of faulty reasoning.
Overconfidence bias occurs when clients demonstrate unwarranted faith in their own intuitive reasoning, judgments, and/or cognitive abilities. It is a cognitive bias that may result from overestimating knowledge, abilities, and access to information. They may rely on faulty reasoning, a “gut feeling” and emotional factors, such as hope, all of which leads to prediction overconfidence and certainty overconfidence.
To challenge potential overconfidence bias, make sure you don’t study individual investments in isolation, and make sure to keep a comparative analysis perspective. This can help keep your own assessments realistic. Think of the investment as being part of a set of comparisons, and then ground your analysis in the average risk and return for that set. In addition, review your trading records, identify the winners and losers, and calculate portfolio performance over at least two years.
When faced with uncertainty, we have seen some clients relying on a mental shortcut known as representativeness bias. Representativeness bias is a belief perseverance bias in which people tend to classify uncertain information based on past experiences. We tend to estimate the likelihood of an outcome or return by comparing it to an existing base point that already exists in our minds.
To overcome the adverse result of representativeness bias, make sure you identify appropriate long-term investments by using a diversified asset allocation strategy that will increase the likelihood of better long-term portfolio returns that meets your financial goals. Then stick with it.
The Anchoring and Adjustment bias occurs when an individual makes new decisions based on old or anchored information. This was evident during the housing crisis. A house value that inflated to $1 million just before the crisis may only have been worth $750,000 in normal market conditions. Owners still anchored their property value at $1 million. This is an example of how people tend to cling to the purchase price or arbitrary price level of an asset. The property was never worth $1 million, but in the owner’s mind, it’s anchored there because at one point they could sell it for that much.
Remember that past prices, market levels, and reputation provide little information about an investment’s future potential and thus should not influence buy-and-sell decisions to any great extent.
Therefore, it is advisable to consider a typical research process: establish some sort of baseline expectation of an economic forecast or stock price, and then to adjust according to changes in those expectations. Always look at current information to reevaluate your initial estimate from time to time rather than simply anchoring future analysis around an initial study.
Mental Accounting bias is an information-processing bias in which people treat one sum of money differently from another equal-sized sum based on the mental account to which the money is assigned. They make the decision about what to do with the money differently depending on its source, such as whether the money is from salary, a bonus, an inheritance, gambling winnings, or business profit. The accounts can also be mentally categorized based on the planned use of the money. For example, some people will put 10 percent of their salary away for retirement, but not 10 percent of a bonus. They think that since they’re already saving from the salary, the bonus can be used for something else.
An effective way to detect and overcome the Mental Accounting bias is to recognize when you are not taking correlations between investments into account in your overall portfolio. To do this, combine all of your assets onto one spreadsheet to see the true asset allocation of various mental account holdings. Then, to avoid the trap of treating investment income and capital appreciation differently, think in terms of total return, and allocate enough assets to lower income investments, such as stocks, to allow the principal to continue to outpace inflation.
Loss-Aversion bias is a bias in which people tend to strongly prefer avoiding losses as opposed to achieving gains. Some investors hold onto losers even if those stocks have little or no chance of recovering. Some studies have suggested that the experience of losses is twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains. The consequence of Loss-Aversion bias is that you can hold investments in a loss position longer than justified by fundamental analysis.
The way to overcome loss-aversion bias is through education and seeking the counsel of a trusted advisor.
An important step to wealth management success is to be aware that these biases exist, challenge yourself to see if you are guilty of one or more of them, and then take actions to overcome them.
In reviewing our blogs on Behavioral Biases, I hope you have learned that all humans have biases. They are a natural part of how our brain works. We also know that returns on long-term investments are impacted by the short-term beliefs, emotions, and impulses. Therefore, to ensure that your biases are not compromising your investment goals and ability to manage your wealth, you need to not only understand how capital markets work but also challenge any biases affecting your decisions.
Anyone willing to share one of their cognitive biases? How did you overcome it?